Forecast Manager | Events and Forecast Adjustments

Forecasts can often be affected by 'events' - occurrences that can cause regular operations to change. A 'happy hour' promotion, for example. 

Events can be applied Forecasting Manager in one of two ways:

1. Setting up an event for a specific timeframe and applying adjustments to forecast values
2. Doing an 'in-line' edit

Further in this article, there are tables that explain the calculation logic for different calculations.

At the end of the article, there is a section that shows how applied events are displayed.

Adding an Event

This is useful when applying the impact of an event across multiple days, or specific time and revenue center combinations.

To add a new event:

From the Forecast Table, select Add Event

This will open a side drawer on the right (Fig.1) 

• Select an Event Category and give it a Name
• Days - the days the event will be applied to. When navigating from week view, these will be all future dates for the selected week; from day view, a single date can be selected
• Times - the time range of the event. Based on customer and location configuration, this section may also include the specific 'day parts' that a customer uses
• Forecast Adjustment
  • Adjustment Volume - the forecast volume the adjustment is specified for. This will default to the active forecast volume
  • Adjustment Type - select either:
    • Percent Adjustment - allows for a percentage increase/decrease to be set
      or
    • Value Adjustment - allows for a value increase/decrease to be set, e.g. dollar adjustment. 
      For Value Adjustment, there are two methods of distribution:
      • Even - the adjustment is evenly spread across the days/intervals/revenue centers specified
        or
      • Weighted - the adjustment is proportionally spread across the days/intervals/revenue centers relative to the base forecast value
  • Base Forecast - the value for the volume that the adjustment is relative to
  • Adjustment - the amount of the adjustment to apply, percentage or value
  • Adjusted Forecast - the indicative resulting value for the specified volume

The example in Fig.1 below demonstrates a new vs. complete event.

An indication of the other volume types that are impacted by the adjustment will be displayed in the Forecast Table and Graph.

In-Line Edit

The alternative to applying an event based on selection of parameters is to make an adjustment in-line. This allows for an absolute value to be set rather than relying on the calculated impact of an event. They are, however, still linked to an event.

To do this:

• In the Forecast Table, select the pencil icon (Fig.2) in the 'Adjusted Forecast' column for the required day/revenue center/time interval
• Manually update the value
• Multiple values can be updated if necessary
• When finished, select Save Adjustments
• In the right side drawer that opens, select an Event Category and enter an Event Name
• Then select Save Adjustments again (see Fig.3)

It is only possible to adjust at a single level in one edit, e.g. day and revenue center values cannot be adjusted in parallel with one another, but multiple day level forecasts can be.

Calculation Logic

Percent Adjustment

Where a percentage adjustment is applied to an event, the affected values will be multiplied by the percentage increase or decrease for the days, intervals and revenue centers to which the adjustment applies.

For example, a 20% increase applied between 10:00 – 12:00 to “Dining Room” and “Online Ordering”:

Value Adjustment

Weighted

For example, a $200 increase applied between 10:00 – 12:00 to “Dining Room” and “Online Ordering”:

Even

For example, a $200 increase applied between 10:00 – 12:00 to “Dining Room” and “Online Ordering”:

In-line Adjustment

In line adjustment applies the specific value to the level at which it is set and works in very much the same way as weighted value adjustments – the distribution is proportional to the original values.

Events

At the bottom of the Forecast Manager page is a table presenting information on the events that have been applied to the week or day selected (Fig. 4).

Against each day or day part, a count of events will display from which the list of events and details of the event applied.

For events that have been created through the 'Add Event' flow, these can be edited or deleted, provided they have not yet started.

• Use the three-dot icon as shown in Fig.5 and then Edit Event

The event right-side drawer will appear, with the event detail populated.

• Make changes as required and then Save Adjustments

If Delete is selected, a dialog box will open for confirmation of the action.

• To proceed, select Delete Event (or Cancel)